Model FavoriteJune 9, 2026
Cardinals
35-28
Mets
29-36
41.6%58.4%
58.4%Model %
+$2.98EV per $100
54.1%Vegas %
Model pick
New York Mets ML (-131)
FinalSt. Louis Cardinals 7, New York Mets 0
The Read
V10 finds a small edge over the market line. Freddy Peralta at full strength (72 IP).
Away Pitcher
Dustin May
66.2 IP · 3.92 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Freddy Peralta
72 IP · 4.01 SIERA
Venue
Citi Field
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
+108 / -131
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -5¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.