Model Favorite · LockJune 10, 2026
Reds
32-34
Padres
34-32
33.7%66.3%
66.3%Model %
+$5.07EV per $100
60.3%Vegas %
Model pick
San Diego Padres ML (-171)
FinalCincinnati Reds 4, San Diego Padres 5
Beat the close+2.0¢ CLV · close -173
The Read
V10 finds a small edge over the market line. Michael King at full strength (74 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
Brady Singer
55 IP · 4.66 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Michael King
74 IP · 4.08 SIERA
Venue
Petco Park
Park factor 0.94
Vegas Line
+141 / -171
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -15¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.