LeanJune 11, 2026
Diamondbacks
34-33
Marlins
33-35
42.1%57.9%
57.9%Model %
+$4.22EV per $100
53.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Miami Marlins ML (-125)
FinalArizona Diamondbacks 0, Miami Marlins 2
Beat the close+6.0¢ CLV · close -131
The Read
V10 finds a small edge over the market line. Tyler Phillips at full strength (43 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Merrill Kelly
58.1 IP · 5.33 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Tyler Phillips
43.1 IP · 4.5 SIERA
Venue
loanDepot park
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+104 / -125
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -10¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.