LeanJune 11, 2026
Braves
45-23
Sox
36-31
57.5%42.5%
57.5%Model %
+$3.87EV per $100
52.9%Vegas %
Model pick
Atlanta Braves ML (-124)
Final—
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -124
The Read
V10 finds a small edge over the market line. Martín Pérez at full strength (56 IP).
Away Pitcher
Martín Pérez
56.2 IP · 4.18 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Anthony Kay
61.1 IP · 4.78 SIERA
Venue
Rate Field
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
-124 / +103
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved +1¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.