LeanJune 12, 2026
Braves
45-23
Mets
30-38
55.0%45.0%
55.0%Model %
+$12.75EV per $100
46.7%Vegas %
Model pick
Atlanta Braves ML (+105)
FinalAtlanta Braves 5, New York Mets 7
Did not beat the close-3.0¢ CLV · close +108
The Read
V10 finds an edge over the market line. Spencer Strider at full strength (36 IP).
Away Pitcher
Spencer Strider
36 IP · 4.04 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Nolan McLean
72.1 IP · 3.53 SIERA
Venue
Citi Field
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
+105 / -126
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
no data
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.