Model FavoriteJune 13, 2026
Mariners
37-34
Nationals
35-35
58.2%41.8%
58.2%Model %
+$13.63EV per $100
48.9%Vegas %
Model pick
Seattle Mariners ML (-105)
FinalSeattle Mariners 3, Washington Nationals 8
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -105
The Read
V10 finds a strong edge over the market line. Luis Castillo at full strength (61 IP).
Away Pitcher
Luis Castillo
61 IP · 4.07 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Cade Cavalli
69.2 IP · 3.75 SIERA
Venue
Nationals Park
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
-105 / -115
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -5¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.