Model Favorite · LockJune 15, 2026
Rays
41-27
Dodgers
45-27
32.9%67.1%
67.1%Model %
+$3.18EV per $100
62.2%Vegas %
Model pick
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-186)
FinalTampa Bay Rays 3, Los Angeles Dodgers 4
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -186
The Read
V10 finds a small edge over the market line. Eric Lauer at full strength (52 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
Nick Martinez
77.2 IP · 4.75 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Eric Lauer
52.2 IP · 5.13 SIERA
Venue
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+153 / -186
O/U 9.5
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -23¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.