Model Favorite · LockJune 16, 2026
Giants
29-43
Braves
46-25
32.4%67.6%
67.6%Model %
+$6.23EV per $100
60.8%Vegas %
Model pick
Atlanta Braves ML (-175)
FinalSan Francisco Giants 7, Atlanta Braves 2
Beat the close+6.0¢ CLV · close -181
The Read
V10 finds a solid edge over the market line. Grant Holmes at full strength (66 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
Adrian Houser
65 IP · 4.88 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Grant Holmes
66.2 IP · 4.53 SIERA
Venue
Truist Park
Park factor 1.00
Vegas Line
+144 / -175
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -19¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.