LeanJune 17, 2026
Tigers
30-43
Astros
34-41
55.4%44.6%
55.4%Model %
+$4.86EV per $100
50.4%Vegas %
Model pick
Detroit Tigers ML (-112)
FinalDetroit Tigers 2, Houston Astros 4
Did not beat the close-4.0¢ CLV · close -108
The Read
V10 finds a solid edge over the market line. Casey Mize at full strength (47 IP).
Away Pitcher
Casey Mize
47.2 IP · 3.51 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Peter Lambert
57 IP · 4.37 SIERA
Venue
Daikin Park
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
-112 / -108
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved +2¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.