Model Favorite · LockJune 17, 2026
Mets
32-41
Reds
35-37
61.6%38.4%
61.6%Model %
+$6.89EV per $100
55.1%Vegas %
Model pick
New York Mets ML (-136)
FinalNew York Mets 9, Cincinnati Reds 1
The Read
V10 finds a solid edge over the market line. Nolan McLean at full strength (76 IP). Mild sharp action against.
Away Pitcher
Nolan McLean
76.1 IP · 3.59 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Nick Lodolo
38 IP · 4.73 SIERA
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Park factor 1.05
Vegas Line
-136 / +113
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
mild on AWAY
Line moved +9¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.