Model Favorite · LockJune 18, 2026
Sox
38-34
Yankees
45-27
35.9%64.1%
64.1%Model %
+$0.31EV per $100
61.1%Vegas %
Model pick
New York Yankees ML (-177)
FinalChicago White Sox 5, New York Yankees 1
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -177
The Read
Re-evaluated after starter change (Sean Burke → Bryan Hudson (away)). Tier demoted from LOCK to PASS — edge no longer sufficient with new pitcher.
Away Pitcher
Bryan Hudson
33 IP · 4.2034 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Ryan Weathers
74.1 IP · 3.45 SIERA
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Park factor 1.02
Vegas Line
+146 / -177
O/U 9.5
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -21¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.