Model Favorite · LockJune 18, 2026
Guardians
39-35
Brewers
45-26
37.9%62.1%
62.1%Model %
+$3.50EV per $100
57.3%Vegas %
Model pick
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-150)
FinalCleveland Guardians 4, Milwaukee Brewers 2
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -150
The Read
V10 finds a small edge over the market line. Shane Drohan at full strength (42 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Parker Messick
80.2 IP · 3.66 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Shane Drohan
42.2 IP · 3.33 SIERA
Venue
American Family Field
Park factor 1.01
Vegas Line
+124 / -150
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -14¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.