Model Favorite · LockJune 19, 2026
Orioles
35-41
Dodgers
48-27
30.5%69.5%
69.5%Model %
+$3.40EV per $100
64.3%Vegas %
Model pick
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-205)
FinalBaltimore Orioles 5, Los Angeles Dodgers 6
Beat the close+2.0¢ CLV · close -207
The Read
V10 finds a small edge over the market line. Roki Sasaki at full strength (62 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Trey Gibson
21.1 IP · 5.63 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Roki Sasaki
62.1 IP · 3.97 SIERA
Venue
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+168 / -205
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -11¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.