LeanJune 19, 2026
Guardians
40-35
Astros
35-41
55.0%45.0%
55.0%Model %
+$12.20EV per $100
46.9%Vegas %
Model pick
Cleveland Guardians ML (+104)
FinalCleveland Guardians 3, Houston Astros 9
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close +104
The Read
V10 finds a strong edge over the market line. Tanner Bibee at full strength (84 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Tanner Bibee
84 IP · 4.22 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Tatsuya Imai
35 IP · 4.81 SIERA
Venue
Daikin Park
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
+104 / -125
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -10¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.