LeanJune 20, 2026
Sox
30-43
Mariners
39-38
42.8%57.2%
57.2%Model %
+$2.60EV per $100
53.3%Vegas %
Model pick
Seattle Mariners ML (-126)
FinalBoston Red Sox 5, Seattle Mariners 1
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -126
The Read
V10 finds a small edge over the market line. Emerson Hancock at full strength (79 IP).
Away Pitcher
Connelly Early
75.2 IP · 4.22 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Emerson Hancock
79.2 IP · 3.6 SIERA
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+105 / -126
O/U 7
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved 0¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.