LeanJune 20, 2026
Guardians
40-36
Astros
36-41
55.2%44.8%
55.2%Model %
+$23.10EV per $100
42.9%Vegas %
Model pick
Cleveland Guardians ML (+123)
FinalCleveland Guardians 8, Houston Astros 1
Did not beat the close-6.0¢ CLV · close +129
The Read
V10 finds a strong edge over the market line. Joey Cantillo at full strength (72 IP).
Away Pitcher
Joey Cantillo
72 IP · 4.63 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Spencer Arrighetti
63 IP · 4.58 SIERA
Venue
Daikin Park
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
+123 / -148
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -5¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.