Model FavoriteJune 20, 2026
Nationals
39-37
Rays
42-30
41.8%58.2%
58.2%Model %
+$4.76EV per $100
53.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-125)
FinalWashington Nationals 4, Tampa Bay Rays 3
Beat the close+5.0¢ CLV · close -130
The Read
V10 finds a solid edge over the market line. Ian Seymour at full strength (38 IP).
Away Pitcher
Cade Cavalli
74.2 IP · 3.72 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Ian Seymour
38.1 IP · 4.07 SIERA
Venue
Tropicana Field
Park factor 1.00
Vegas Line
+104 / -125
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -5¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.