LeanJune 29, 2026
Pirates
42-42
Phillies
47-37
44.2%55.8%
55.8%Model %
+$5.62EV per $100
50.5%Vegas %
Model pick
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-112)
FinalPittsburgh Pirates 11, Philadelphia Phillies 7
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -112
The Read
V10 finds a solid edge over the market line. Aaron Nola at full strength (80 IP).
Away Pitcher
Braxton Ashcraft
96.2 IP · 3.2 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Aaron Nola
80.2 IP · 3.94 SIERA
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Park factor 1.02
Vegas Line
-107 / -112
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -7¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.