Model FavoriteJuly 2, 2026
Reds
39-46
Brewers
53-31
30.9%69.1%
69.1%Model %
+$2.97EV per $100
64.2%Vegas %
Model pick
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-204)
FinalCincinnati Reds 7, Milwaukee Brewers 2
Beat the close+15.0¢ CLV · close -219
The Read
V10 finds a solid edge over the market line. Jacob Misiorowski at full strength (99 IP).
Away Pitcher
Chase Burns
91.2 IP · 3.21 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Jacob Misiorowski
99 IP · 2.31 SIERA
Venue
American Family Field
Park factor 1.01
Vegas Line
+167 / -204
O/U 7
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -5¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.