LeanJuly 4, 2026
Phillies
49-39
Royals
35-53
61.8%38.2%
61.8%Model %
+$1.42EV per $100
58.3%Vegas %
Model pick
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-156)
FinalPhiladelphia Phillies 6, Kansas City Royals 1
Beat the close+6.0¢ CLV · close -162
The Read
V10 finds a solid edge over the market line. Jesús Luzardo at full strength (97 IP).
Away Pitcher
Jesús Luzardo
97.1 IP · 3.32 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Michael Wacha
108.2 IP · 4.35 SIERA
Venue
Kauffman Stadium
Park factor 1.00
Vegas Line
-156 / +129
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved +6¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.