Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Diamondbacks
45-45
Padres
44-46
47.9%52.1%
52.1%Model %
−$4.48EV per $100
52.1%Vegas %
Model pick
San Diego Padres ML (-120)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Germán Márquez at full strength (32 IP). Mild sharp action against.
Away Pitcher
Zac Gallen
92 IP · 4.98 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Germán Márquez
32.2 IP · 5.65 SIERA
Venue
Petco Park
Park factor 0.94
Vegas Line
-101 / -120
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
mild on AWAY
Line moved +11¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.