Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Athletics
41-49
Tigers
40-50
37.6%62.4%
62.4%Model %
−$9.11EV per $100
65.6%Vegas %
Model pick
Detroit Tigers ML (-219)
The Read
V10 diverges sharply from the market on a lower-confidence game (59%) - that pattern historically favors the market, so it is a pass. Tarik Skubal at full strength (65 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
J.T. Ginn
94.2 IP · 4.49 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Tarik Skubal
65.2 IP · 2.74 SIERA
Venue
Comerica Park
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
+178 / -219
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -25¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.