Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Braves
52-37
Pirates
46-45
49.0%51.0%
51.0%Model %
−$14.77EV per $100
57.3%Vegas %
Model pick
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-149)
The Read
V10 diverges sharply from the market on a lower-confidence game (51%) - that pattern historically favors the market, so it is a pass. Paul Skenes at full strength (97 IP). Market moving against this pick.
Away Pitcher
Hurston Waldrep
7.1 IP · 4.43 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Paul Skenes
97 IP · 3.01 SIERA
Venue
PNC Park
Park factor 0.98
Vegas Line
+124 / -149
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
sharp on AWAY
Line moved +37¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.