Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Sox
40-48
Sox
47-42
52.2%47.8%
52.2%Model %
−$6.37EV per $100
53.2%Vegas %
Model pick
Boston Red Sox ML (-126)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Payton Tolle at full strength (74 IP).
Away Pitcher
Payton Tolle
74.1 IP · 3.97 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Noah Schultz
43 IP · 5.07 SIERA
Venue
Rate Field
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
-126 / +104
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved 0¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.