Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Cubs
50-40
Orioles
42-49
51.3%48.7%
51.3%Model %
−$4.09EV per $100
51.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Chicago Cubs ML (-115)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Matthew Boyd at full strength (33 IP).
Away Pitcher
Matthew Boyd
33.2 IP · 3.6 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Shane Baz
101 IP · 4.54 SIERA
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Park factor 1.02
Vegas Line
-115 / -105
O/U 9.5
Sharp Signal
no data
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.