Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Guardians
47-44
Twins
44-47
52.5%47.5%
52.5%Model %
+$2.50EV per $100
49.0%Vegas %
Model pick
Cleveland Guardians ML (-105)
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Joey Cantillo at full strength (91 IP).
Away Pitcher
Joey Cantillo
91 IP · 4.46 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Taj Bradley
88.2 IP · 3.92 SIERA
Venue
Target Field
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
-105 / -114
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved +6¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.