Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Astros
45-48
Nationals
47-45
46.1%53.9%
53.9%Model %
−$1.18EV per $100
52.2%Vegas %
Model pick
Washington Nationals ML (-120)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Andrew Alvarez at full strength (41 IP).
Away Pitcher
Tatsuya Imai
48.1 IP · 4.26 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Andrew Alvarez
41.1 IP · 3.12 SIERA
Venue
Nationals Park
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
+100 / -120
O/U 9.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -2¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.