Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Royals
37-54
Mets
38-53
40.0%60.0%
60.0%Model %
−$1.29EV per $100
58.1%Vegas %
Model pick
New York Mets ML (-155)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Bullpen edge drives the lean.
Away Pitcher
Seth Lugo
96.1 IP · 4.52 SIERA
Home Pitcher
TBD
0 IP
Venue
Citi Field
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
+128 / -155
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -6¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.