Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Brewers
56-33
Cardinals
47-41
61.5%38.5%
61.5%Model %
−$9.35EV per $100
64.9%Vegas %
Model pick
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-211)
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Robert Gasser at full strength (35 IP). Mild sharp action against.
Away Pitcher
Robert Gasser
35.2 IP · 4.23 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Hunter Dobbins
17.1 IP · 3.59 SIERA
Venue
Busch Stadium
Park factor 0.98
Vegas Line
-211 / +172
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
mild on AWAY
Line moved +14¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.