Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Yankees
50-40
Rays
52-36
49.6%50.4%
50.4%Model %
−$8.29EV per $100
52.5%Vegas %
Model pick
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-122)
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Ian Seymour at full strength (56 IP).
Away Pitcher
Will Warren
89.1 IP · 3.91 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Ian Seymour
56 IP · 3.74 SIERA
Venue
Tropicana Field
Park factor 1.00
Vegas Line
+101 / -122
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -2¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.