Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Phillies
50-41
Reds
41-48
63.3%36.7%
63.3%Model %
−$0.53EV per $100
60.8%Vegas %
Model pick
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-175)
The Read
V10 leans this way with a calibrated read (64%). Zack Wheeler at full strength (80 IP).
Away Pitcher
Zack Wheeler
80 IP · 3.32 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Andrew Abbott
95 IP · 5.08 SIERA
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Park factor 1.05
Vegas Line
-175 / +144
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved +5¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.