Model FavoriteJuly 7, 2026
Jays
42-49
Giants
38-52
53.8%46.2%
53.8%Model %
−$0.61EV per $100
51.7%Vegas %
Model pick
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-118)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Spencer Miles at full strength (54 IP).
Away Pitcher
Spencer Miles
54 IP · 3.13 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Trevor McDonald
57 IP · 3.9 SIERA
Venue
Oracle Park
Park factor 0.93
Vegas Line
-118 / -102
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved +6¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.