LeanJuly 9, 2026
Brewers
58-34
Cardinals
48-43
58.5%41.5%
58.5%Model %
+$1.51EV per $100
55.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-136)
FinalMilwaukee Brewers 8, St. Louis Cardinals 4
Did not beat the close-10.0¢ CLV · close -126
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Logan Henderson at full strength (23 IP).
Away Pitcher
Logan Henderson
23 IP · 3.03 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Andre Pallante
95 IP · 4.22 SIERA
Venue
Busch Stadium
Park factor 0.98
Vegas Line
-136 / +113
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved +4¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.