LeanJuly 18, 2026
Marlins
52-46
Brewers
60-37
38.4%61.6%
61.6%Model %
+$2.94EV per $100
57.2%Vegas %
Model pick
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-149)
FinalMiami Marlins 6, Milwaukee Brewers 8
Did not beat the close-12.0¢ CLV · close -137
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Shane Drohan at full strength (70 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
Max Meyer
108 IP · 3.76 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Shane Drohan
70 IP · 3.78 SIERA
Venue
American Family Field
Park factor 1.01
Vegas Line
+123 / -149
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -16¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.