Model FavoriteJuly 18, 2026
Giants
42-55
Mariners
48-50
36.5%63.5%
63.5%Model %
+$3.95EV per $100
58.4%Vegas %
Model pick
Seattle Mariners ML (-157)
FinalSan Francisco Giants 3, Seattle Mariners 4
Beat the close+7.0¢ CLV · close -164
The Read
V10 leans this way with a calibrated read (64%). Bryan Woo at full strength (104 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
Logan Webb
100.1 IP · 4 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Bryan Woo
104.1 IP · 3.62 SIERA
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+130 / -157
O/U 7
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -24¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.