Model FavoriteJuly 20, 2026
Reds
45-53
Mariners
50-50
36.7%63.3%
63.3%Model %
+$4.14EV per $100
58.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Seattle Mariners ML (-155)
FinalCincinnati Reds 0, Seattle Mariners 8
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -155
The Read
V10 leans this way with a calibrated read (66%). George Kirby at full strength (110 IP).
Away Pitcher
Andrew Abbott
105 IP · 4.93 SIERA
Home Pitcher
George Kirby
110 IP · 3.79 SIERA
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+128 / -155
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved +1¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.