LeanJuly 21, 2026
Orioles
49-52
Sox
51-48
41.2%58.8%
58.8%Model %
+$0.21EV per $100
56.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Boston Red Sox ML (-142)
Final—
Did not beat the close-30.0¢ CLV · close -112
The Read
Re-evaluated after starter change (Ranger Suarez → Eduardo Rivera (home)). V10 still favors Boston Red Sox.
Away Pitcher
Kyle Bradish
107.1 IP · 4.3 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Eduardo Rivera
9.1 IP · 3.9342 SIERA
Venue
Fenway Park
Park factor 1.03
Vegas Line
+118 / -142
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -6¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.