Model FavoriteJuly 22, 2026
Reds
46-54
Mariners
51-51
35.1%64.9%
64.9%Model %
+$3.53EV per $100
60.0%Vegas %
Model pick
Seattle Mariners ML (-168)
FinalCincinnati Reds 5, Seattle Mariners 3
Beat the close+4.0¢ CLV · close -172
The Read
V10 leans this way with a calibrated read (66%). Emerson Hancock at full strength (99 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Brady Singer
96.2 IP · 4.39 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Emerson Hancock
99.1 IP · 3.76 SIERA
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+139 / -168
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -12¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.