LeanJuly 22, 2026
Twins
49-53
Guardians
54-48
41.2%58.8%
58.8%Model %
+$1.72EV per $100
55.3%Vegas %
Model pick
Cleveland Guardians ML (-137)
FinalMinnesota Twins 10, Cleveland Guardians 6
Did not beat the close+0.0¢ CLV · close -137
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Slade Cecconi at full strength (99 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Bailey Ober
77 IP · 4.65 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Slade Cecconi
99 IP · 4.5 SIERA
Venue
Progressive Field
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
+114 / -137
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -11¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.