LeanJuly 22, 2026
Mets
43-59
Brewers
63-38
38.4%61.6%
61.6%Model %
+$0.84EV per $100
58.4%Vegas %
Model pick
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-157)
FinalNew York Mets 3, Milwaukee Brewers 4
Beat the close+5.0¢ CLV · close -162
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Logan Henderson at full strength (33 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Christian Scott
59.2 IP · 3.78 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Logan Henderson
33.1 IP · 3.17 SIERA
Venue
American Family Field
Park factor 1.01
Vegas Line
+130 / -157
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -8¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.