Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Diamondbacks
53-49
Cardinals
52-49
47.8%52.2%
52.2%Model %
−$5.01EV per $100
52.5%Vegas %
Model pick
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-122)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Michael McGreevy at full strength (108 IP). Mild sharp action against.
Away Pitcher
Brandon Pfaadt
59 IP · 4.29 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Michael McGreevy
108 IP · 4.43 SIERA
Venue
Busch Stadium
Park factor 0.98
Vegas Line
+101 / -122
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
mild on AWAY
Line moved +9¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.