Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Diamondbacks
54-49
Nationals
52-51
47.1%52.9%
52.9%Model %
+$7.92EV per $100
46.8%Vegas %
Model pick
Washington Nationals ML (+104)
The Read
V10 diverges sharply from the market on a lower-confidence game (56%) - that pattern historically favors the market, so it is a pass. Carson Palmquist on a limited sample (11 IP).
Away Pitcher
Eduardo Rodriguez
116.2 IP · 4.84 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Carson Palmquist
11.1 IP · 3.45 SIERA
Venue
Nationals Park
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
-126 / +104
O/U 9.5
Sharp Signal
no data
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.