Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Athletics
43-59
Twins
51-53
44.6%55.4%
55.4%Model %
−$6.13EV per $100
56.4%Vegas %
Model pick
Minnesota Twins ML (-144)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Zebby Matthews at full strength (70 IP).
Away Pitcher
Jacob Lopez
59.2 IP · 5.49 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Zebby Matthews
70 IP · 4.39 SIERA
Venue
Target Field
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
+119 / -144
O/U 9.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved 0¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.