Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Braves
60-42
Orioles
50-53
49.2%50.8%
50.8%Model %
−$9.82EV per $100
53.8%Vegas %
Model pick
Baltimore Orioles ML (-129)
The Read
V10 diverges sharply from the market on a lower-confidence game (47%) - that pattern historically favors the market, so it is a pass. Trevor Rogers at full strength (96 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Grant Holmes
92.1 IP · 4.75 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Trevor Rogers
96.2 IP · 4.59 SIERA
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Park factor 1.02
Vegas Line
+107 / -129
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -9¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.