Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Cubs
57-45
Pirates
53-50
48.6%51.4%
51.4%Model %
−$0.56EV per $100
49.5%Vegas %
Model pick
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-107)
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Jared Jones at full strength (40 IP). Market moving against this pick.
Away Pitcher
Matthew Boyd
52 IP · 3.8 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Jared Jones
40 IP · 3.25 SIERA
Venue
PNC Park
Park factor 0.98
Vegas Line
-112 / -107
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
sharp on AWAY
Line moved +16¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.