Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Reds
47-54
Cardinals
52-50
44.3%55.7%
55.7%Model %
−$7.17EV per $100
57.3%Vegas %
Model pick
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-150)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Dustin May at full strength (98 IP). Mild sharp action against.
Away Pitcher
Rhett Lowder
72 IP · 4.89 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Dustin May
98 IP · 4 SIERA
Venue
Busch Stadium
Park factor 0.98
Vegas Line
+124 / -150
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
mild on AWAY
Line moved +12¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.