Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Astros
50-54
Sox
54-47
45.5%54.5%
54.5%Model %
−$5.72EV per $100
55.3%Vegas %
Model pick
Chicago White Sox ML (-137)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Davis Martin at full strength (106 IP). Market moving against this pick.
Away Pitcher
Spencer Arrighetti
87 IP · 4.7 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Davis Martin
106 IP · 4.05 SIERA
Venue
Rate Field
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
+114 / -137
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
sharp on AWAY
Line moved +16¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.