Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Royals
43-60
Tigers
48-54
34.3%65.7%
65.7%Model %
−$12.62EV per $100
71.9%Vegas %
Model pick
Detroit Tigers ML (-303)
The Read
V10 leans this way with a calibrated read (63%). Troy Melton at full strength (55 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
Randy Dobnak
14 IP · 5.65 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Troy Melton
55 IP · 3.86 SIERA
Venue
Comerica Park
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
+241 / -303
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
no data
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.