Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Dodgers
65-38
Mets
43-60
52.4%47.6%
52.4%Model %
−$5.68EV per $100
53.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-125)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Roki Sasaki at full strength (86 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
Roki Sasaki
86.2 IP · 4.23 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Sean Manaea
79.2 IP · 3.8 SIERA
Venue
Citi Field
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
-125 / +104
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -28¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.