LeanJuly 24, 2026
Twins
50-53
Guardians
54-49
39.9%60.1%
60.1%Model %
+$0.44EV per $100
57.2%Vegas %
Model pick
Cleveland Guardians ML (-149)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Gavin Williams at full strength (119 IP). Sharps confirm the lean.
Away Pitcher
Taj Bradley
107.2 IP · 3.83 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Gavin Williams
119.1 IP · 3.23 SIERA
Venue
Progressive Field
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
+123 / -149
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
sharp on HOME
Line moved -18¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.